Titre : | Assessing the economic impact of different bluetongue virus (BTV) incursion scenarios in Scotland |
Auteurs : | G. Gunn, Auteur Alistair W. Stott, Auteur L. Toma, Auteur |
Editeur : | Edinburgh : Scottish Agricultural College |
Année de publication : | 2008 |
Présentation physique : | 86p.(+tb+gh+c+bibl) |
Mots clés : |
REGI
GRBR ANIM CRIS RISQ SANT COUT MOUT FCO |
Mots-clés libres : | FCO |
Note générale : | D |
Résumé : | Bluetongue virus (BTV) causes significant disease losses among ruminant and camelid livestock. In recent years, the geographic area affected by BTV has increased significantly with disease now occurring in animals across an ever increasing area [...] Bluetongue virus (BTV) causes significant disease losses among ruminant and camelid livestock. In recent years, the geographic area affected by BTV has increased significantly with disease now occurring in animals across an ever increasing area of mainland Europe with the virus somehow surviving over winter in Northern Europe in 2006/2007. BTV is carried by midge vectors and a strain of this virus, BTV strain 8 (BTV 8), was detected for the first time in England in the autumn of 2007.The four objectives specified in the project specification were : I) Development of feasible incursion scenarios; ii) Development of epidemiological scenarios; iii) To develop an economic consequences model for the consequences of BTV 8 spreading to Scotland; a,d iv) To carry out economic evaluation for the agreed control strategies for eachIncursion Scenario.The objectives of the economic aspects of the work were two fold : i) To develop an economic consequences model for identifying, measuring and valuing direct and indirect socio-economic consequences (costs due to disease control and other consequences) of the virus spreading to Scotland; ii) To conduct, under each of the incursion scenarios, an economic evaluation of the strategies available for controlling the disease.If a BTV outbreak was to occur in Scotland, the costs are estimated to be £100m per annum (£30m in direct costs and £70m in indirect costs). Although the symptoms of disease are expressed more often in sheep than in cattle, the losses to the cattle sector from a BTV 8 incursion into Scotland would exceed those to the sheep sector. This research project has concluded that the cost of surveillance and disease control through vaccination are both justified in the face of a probable BTV outbreak. Vaccinating 80% (C6) and 50% (C4) of holdings in a PZ comprising the whole of Scotland were the best Control Strategies (i.e. gave the lowest mean BTV 8 outbreak losses of all the vaccination strategies). Since the higher rate of vaccination uptake offered the greatest reduction in the spatial spread of BTV and given the uncertainties inherent in this type of predictive analysis, targeting the higher rate of vaccine uptake (C6) might be considered prudent. |
Exemplaires (1)
Code-barres | Cote | Support | Localisation | Section | Disponibilité | Fonds spéciaux | Note publique |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
700019195 | B/VI/GRBR/67/6 | Papier | Bibliothèque de l'Agriculture | Fonds Agriculture | En rayon Disponible |